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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-12-01T07:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-12-01T07:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16181/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption from AR12787 starting after 2020-12-01T06:30Z as seen by SDO/AIA 094/131/171/193/211/304, and by STEREO-A EUVIA 195. Front enters into the field of view of SOHO C2 at 2020-12-01T07:12Z, C3 at 2020-12-01T08:06Z. The CME front appears as a partial halo in STEREO-A COR2 at 2020-12-01T08:39Z, which is the first available image after a data gap that started at 2020-12-01T07:45Z. The DSCOVR and ACE data are remarkably different for the in-situ signature. DSCOVR data seems to have erroneous sharp increases. From the ACE data, we cannot identify any shock or ICME on Dec 3-5.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-03T20:29Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.5 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-12-01 10:59
 - Time at C2: 2020-12-01 07:12
 - Radial speed: 774.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: N08E45
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 638.20 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2020-12-03 20:29 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.30 hours)

Lead Time: 49.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2020-12-01T19:22Z

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